The Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult watch report for 2025 is out and I will admit I am a little late to covering it.

That is for three reasons.

First, I missed it coming out because I was editing one of my many videos.
Second, I got distracted halfway through making a video ranking Formula 1 watch brands.
Third, I spent far too long digging through the data so you do not have to.

So welcome to Doug’s Watches, the thinking watch channel, where art, design, history, theory and philosophy meet the world of watches.

Today we are talking about who won, who lost, and what the report actually means for watch buyers.

But before we dive in, we need to address something important.

The Problem With the Morgan Stanley Watch Report

The Morgan Stanley report gets treated like gospel in watch media every year. In reality it is a best guess.

Very few Swiss watch brands publish detailed production numbers or revenue breakdowns. Most of the figures in the report are estimates based on export data, interviews with suppliers, and analyst modelling.

That means the report is useful for spotting broad trends but not for drawing precise conclusions.

For example, when the report estimates a brand’s production numbers it often relies on Swiss export statistics. But those numbers track exports from Switzerland, not final sales to customers. A watch exported this year may sit in retail inventory for months or years before it sells.

Brand revenues are even harder to estimate. Many luxury groups report combined figures that bundle watches with jewellery or other divisions. Analysts then reverse engineer estimates from that data.

In other words the report tells us where the industry is heading, but it does not tell us exact truths about individual brands. Treat the numbers as directional rather than definitive.

With that caveat in place, the trends this year are still fascinating.

The Winners: Ultra Luxury Is Taking Over

One of the biggest takeaways from the report is the continued rise of what analysts call the “Big Four” watch brands.

Rolex, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe and Richard Mille.

Together these brands accounted for 47 percent of industry value last year. In the latest report their combined share has climbed to 51 percent.

That is an enormous concentration of power at the very top of the market.

Each brand also posted solid growth in value.

Rolex grew about 4 percent.
Audemars Piguet grew around 9 percent.
Patek Philippe also grew roughly 9 percent.
Richard Mille likewise saw growth around that level.

Interestingly this reshapes the ranking of the biggest watch brands by revenue. The top of the industry now reads Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe, with Omega falling behind them.

That is remarkable when you consider that Omega once sat comfortably near the top of that list.

What makes the growth of the ultra luxury brands particularly interesting is that many of them are not selling dramatically more watches. In several cases they are selling fewer watches at higher prices.

Rolex for example saw the value of shipments rise while production volumes slightly declined.

The same pattern appears elsewhere in the report. The luxury watch market is becoming more top heavy. Buyers are purchasing fewer watches overall but spending more on each one.

There are several possible explanations.

Some collectors may be shifting toward precious metal pieces and higher complications. Some may be chasing limited editions or highly collectible references. Others may simply be wealthier buyers dominating the market.

Another possibility is psychological.

Rolex used to be the universal symbol of success. Today it is everywhere. Fakes may even outnumber real pieces globally. As a result brands like Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet may now represent the next step up for buyers who want a more exclusive status symbol.

Whatever the reason, the shift toward high luxury is clear.

Other Brands Quietly Growing

Outside the Big Four, several brands had strong years.

Cartier grew about 10 percent.
Van Cleef & Arpels grew roughly 13 percent.
Jacob & Co increased revenue by around 14 percent.
Louis Vuitton’s watch division grew about 9 percent.

Cartier and Van Cleef’s growth suggests something else that the watch world often ignores. The female watch market appears to be expanding.

Most online watch communities remain overwhelmingly male. My own audience is roughly 97 percent male. But the broader luxury market clearly has a much stronger female presence.

Brands that cater to women, jewellery buyers, or fashion oriented collectors may be tapping into a much larger audience than traditional watch marketing assumes.

Jacob & Co is another interesting case. The brand increased both sales value and production numbers. That is unusual in a market where many brands are selling fewer watches at higher prices.

However Jacob & Co produces relatively small numbers each year, estimated around 3,000 pieces. A successful run of high demand models can easily move those numbers significantly.

There may also be another factor at play. Ultra wealthy buyers increasingly treat rare watches as alternative assets. In several countries, including the UK, watches are exempt from capital gains tax. That makes them surprisingly attractive stores of wealth.

Louis Vuitton also deserves mention.

The brand sold far fewer watches in 2025, with production dropping dramatically. But the total value of sales still increased.

This reflects the success of the redesigned Tambour, which repositioned Louis Vuitton away from fashion watch territory and toward serious watchmaking.

Within the LVMH watch division that repositioning stands out. TAG Heuer declined slightly while Bulgari saw modest growth.

A Small Moment for the Value Brands

Two smaller brands deserve recognition.

Frederique Constant climbed slightly in the rankings, moving from 36th to 35th. Raymond Weil jumped from 42nd to 39th.

Both brands are doing strong work in the affordable luxury segment and yet they rarely receive attention in online watch media.

Christopher Ward also entered the top 50 for the first time at number 48. That is a major milestone for a brand that has built its reputation on strong specifications and competitive pricing.

The success of brands like Christopher Ward suggests there is still strong demand for watches that offer clear value for money.

The Losers: The Middle of the Market

Now we reach the more troubling part of the report.

The Swatch Group had a very difficult year.

Longines, Tissot, Swatch, Blancpain, Rado and Omega all saw declines in both sales value and production volumes.

This highlights a structural issue.

The growth in the watch industry is currently happening in two places. Ultra high luxury brands and brands appealing to female buyers.

Swatch Group struggles to dominate either category.

Omega’s numbers are particularly striking.

In 2024 Omega reportedly produced around 505,000 watches. In 2025 that number dropped to roughly 460,000.

The decline is not catastrophic, but it is significant.

Some might argue the Bond marketing effect is fading. But the decline appears across much of the Swatch portfolio.

Longines for example experienced an 18 percent drop in both value and volume. That means the brand is not even offsetting lower sales with higher prices. It is simply selling fewer watches.

Most Swatch brands show similar declines across both metrics. Unlike Louis Vuitton or Rolex, there is no major repositioning happening.

The Swatch Group brand ladder has always been very rigid. That structure may now be slowing its ability to adapt.

Tissot and Certina appear slightly more resilient. Tissot’s production fell from around 2.55 million units to 2.48 million. Certina declined from roughly 132,000 pieces to 122,000.

Those numbers suggest the sub one thousand dollar watch market remains relatively healthy.

The real problem is the middle tier.

Why Omega, Tudor and TAG Heuer Are in Trouble

The brands under the most pressure are the ones competing in the three to eight thousand dollar range.

Omega. Tudor. TAG Heuer. Longines.

These watches are expensive enough to be serious purchases but not expensive enough to be seen as investment grade luxury.

Buyers in this bracket are usually financially aware. They know watches lose value quickly once they leave the authorised dealer.

If a buyer has six thousand dollars to spend, they may start asking difficult questions.

Why buy a watch that instantly drops to half its retail value?

Why not save a little longer and buy a Rolex instead?

In an uncertain economic environment the “safe purchase” becomes incredibly attractive. Buyers are increasingly educated about the secondary market. Many have already experienced selling a watch at a large loss.

That memory changes behaviour.

The result is a squeeze on the middle of the market.

What This Means for Watch Buyers

If you are a watch enthusiast there may actually be some good news here.

Brands experiencing falling sales volumes are still producing watches based on older demand forecasts. That creates excess inventory.

Excess inventory leads to discounts.

We may start seeing deeper price cuts from retailers and authorised dealers, particularly on brands like TAG Heuer, Omega, Longines and Tudor.

That means opportunities for buyers willing to shop around.

The Swatch Group itself is not going anywhere. It remains one of the largest players in the industry. But the MoonSwatch phenomenon did not solve its long term structural issues.

Recent campaigns like Omega’s smaller Aqua Terra launch suggest the group understands the need to adapt. Expect more aggressive marketing, repositioning and possibly even drastic strategic moves.

Some brands may attempt to push further upmarket. Others may chase the growing female watch market.

There is also the possibility of consolidation. Smaller brands or underperforming divisions could be sold or spun off in the future.

At the very top of the market however the story looks very different.

Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet continue to be rewarded for playing it safe. As long as demand remains strong there is little incentive for radical innovation.

Expect incremental changes. New dial colours. Slight movement upgrades. Limited production runs.

Not revolutionary watchmaking.

For better or worse, the industry’s biggest winners have little reason to change.

And that may be the most important takeaway from the entire report.